Roadmap targets 42% cut in US PET bottle emissions

The US PET packaging value chain could reduce total annual greenhouse gas emissions from selected beverage bottle systems even as production increases, according to a roadmap released by the National Association for PET Container Resources (NAPCOR). PET Forward: A Decarbonization Roadmap for the PET Packaging Value Chain, prepared by independent environmental consulting firm Eastern Research Group, Inc. (ERG), identifies strategies for lowering emissions through 2050. The analysis covers predominant US beverage bottle systems made from polyethylene terephthalate (PET), the plastic commonly identified by resin code 1.

The roadmap estimates that the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions intensity of the PET beverage bottle systems studied could fall by approximately 57% by 2050. This measure covers emissions associated with each bottle throughout its life cycle, including raw material production, manufacturing, transportation and end-of-life management. Despite projected production growth, total annual emissions from the systems studied could decline by about 42%. NAPCOR equates this reduction to removing 323,000 gasoline-powered passenger vehicles from the road.

The research builds on NAPCOR's comparative life cycle assessment, which concluded that a typical PET soft drink bottle has less than half the total greenhouse gas footprint of an aluminium can and approximately one-fifth that of a glass bottle. The new roadmap assesses how emissions from PET beverage bottles could be reduced further.

Many of the measures behind the modelled reductions are already available within the PET value chain. They include lightweighting, the use of renewable energy and improvements in manufacturing efficiency. Further reductions could result from stronger collection systems, higher recycling rates and recycled content, and continued investment in infrastructure and innovation.

"PET is already starting from a position of strength," said Laura Stewart, Executive Director of NAPCOR. "It has a lower greenhouse gas footprint than common beverage packaging alternatives, is the most recycled plastic in the world, and is supported by an established bottle-to-bottle recycling system operating at scale. This roadmap shows that we don't have to choose between meeting growing consumer demand and continuing to improve environmental performance; we can do both."

A practical pathway to lower emissions

The ISO-compliant roadmap builds on NAPCOR's 2023 peer-reviewed, ISO-compliant life cycle assessment. It examines four predominant PET beverage bottle systems sold in the United States: 16.9-ounce water bottles and 16.9-ounce, 20-ounce and 2-litre carbonated soft drink bottles. It evaluates emissions from raw material production and manufacturing through transportation and end-of-life management, then models how the footprint could change through 2050. The final report was peer-reviewed by an independent third-party expert.

The model indicates that substantial reductions could be achieved before 2050. Compared with the 2023 baseline, the emissions intensity of a 16.9-ounce PET water bottle system, measured per 1,000 gallons of beverage delivered, could decline by approximately 44% by 2035. Over the same period, the three carbonated soft drink bottle systems could reduce emissions intensity by approximately 35% to 43%.

The roadmap separates measures that the PET industry can implement directly from broader conditions needed for additional progress. Manufacturers can improve bottle design, energy efficiency and production processes. Deeper long-term reductions, however, depend on reliable supplies of high-quality recycled PET, stronger collection and sorting infrastructure, sufficient recycling capacity and supportive policy.

"The analysis is designed as a roadmap. It models the cumulative impact of multiple strategies over time and includes sensitivity analyses to account for variables such as future production growth and different approaches to measuring the benefits of recycling. The result is a framework for identifying where the PET industry can act today and where collaboration across the value chain will be necessary to achieve further progress," said Dr. Mariya Absar, Senior LCA Expert at ERG.

Links between decarbonisation and manufacturing

The roadmap also considers the relationship between emissions reductions, domestic manufacturing and recycling capacity. According to the analysis, investments in more efficient production, expanded collection and processing, greater availability of recycled PET and packaging innovation could lower environmental impacts while strengthening US supply chains.

"Recycling strengthens American manufacturing," added Stewart. "When we collect more PET and recycle it here in the United States, we create a stronger domestic supply of valuable material for manufacturers. Policies that improve collection and encourage investment in recycling infrastructure can help accelerate environmental progress while also strengthening American manufacturing and supply chain resilience."

Many of the investments identified as necessary for PET decarbonisation are also investments in US manufacturing and recycling. The roadmap points to collection, domestic processing capacity and access to recycled material as factors linking the two areas.

"Decarbonization depends on connecting manufacturing with the recycling system," said Tom Busard, NAPCOR Board Chair, Chief Polymers and Recycling Officer for Plastipak Packaging, Inc., and President of Clean Tech, Plastipak's recycling affiliate. "Efficiency gains matter, but deeper reductions require reliable access to high-quality recycled PET. That makes stronger collection and domestic recycling capacity essential to delivering lower-carbon packaging at scale."

The full PET Forward: A Decarbonization Roadmap for the PET Packaging Value Chain report, its executive summary and additional resources are available on NAPCOR's website.